Ruminations, Haunts, and Errors

2004-11-13

RHE is moving!

Attention, loyal readers (all five or six of you): RHE is moving to a new url: rhe.bartonia.net. Hopefully this will be an essentially permanent addresss, as it will no longer be tied to a particular ISP or web hosting service. The RSS links are also moving to bartonwebspace.home.comcast.net/rhe/RSS; eventually I hope to get these urls into the bartonia.net domain as well. I will not be deleting any content from its existing location, so any links to particular items should remain valid for the foreseeable future. Any updates or redirections of that content will be made as transparent as possible. In addition to the easier-to-remember URL, the updated site sports some new navigation features that should make poking around a bit easier. Enjoy!

Hard-hitting, insightful news

Yesterday, before the announcement of the verdict in the Scott Peterson trial, some crack CNN analysts informed us that the jury’s verdict would either be guilty or not guilty. Today a headline on Comcast’s website, presumably by a similar team of experts, blares that his conviction means he now faces either life or death.

Wow. I’m sure glad we have our media to sort out these great mysteries for us…

2004-11-12

Liz on cuisine

"What the world needs is more Thai restaurants with ambience."

2004-11-11

Administrative improvements to the patent system

For some reason, a brief patent-related news story I read on C|Net this morning prompted me to muse about the flaws of the current U.S. patent system for the remainder of my commute. It seems to me that with just a few procedural alterations, many of the abusive practices common today could be reined in without requiring fundamental shifts in the nature of patent law:

  • Require applicants to submit evidence that their ideas are new, original, unique, and/or non-obvious. Such requirements would not only tend to weed out some of the more questionable patents, but also streamline the process by giving the (overworked) examiners some place to start their reviews and investigations.
  • Add (or expand) safe harbor provisions. Provide exceptions that limit liability when a party shown to be infringing a patent can show that they did not do so knowingly or willingly, with the terms of judgement growing ever more lenient the longer a patent holder—especially one who is not the original recipient—waits to seek to profit from its use. Moreover, licensing terms should be especially favorable if the infringer can prove that he came upon the idea independently. In all cases where such a ‘safe harbor’ provision applies, the controlling date of settlements or judgments should be the date when enforcement actions were initiated.

Essentially, I’m proposing that the ethos of granting and enforcing patents be revised so that the granting of a patent is the exception rather than the norm, the burden of proof in granting patents is placed squarely on the applicants, and the ability to profit from licensing is related to how quickly, openly, and diligently a patent holder seeks enforcement. The patent system was designed to give inventors a way to profit from their talents, or at least recoup some of the costs of development, and thus to encourage the open exchange of ideas. We need to get back to that view, and a good way to start is to rework the system a little bit so that true innovators aren’t penalized because someone else has a better lawyer or more aggressive business agent.

2004-11-07

The meaning of Election 2004

Since Wednesday morning the punditry on all sides has expounded upon the strategy and tactics of how the election was won (or lost), what ideas it confirmed or repudiated, yada yada yada. Having had some time to digest it all, I think I’ve established why the results bother me so much.

In 2000, the problem was a sense that Bush was installed by mistake: the mismatch between electoral and popular results, the Supreme Court ruling, the lingering question whether the verifiable votes in Florida truly represented the will of its electorate. In 2004, there was no mistake (barring some improbable bombshell during the final count of absentee/provisional ballots in Ohio)…and that’s the true source of dismay. It appears that a (small) majority of Americans prefer the vision currently outlined by the Republicans, and that’s what bothers me. (I’ll admit that’s partly because it’s uncomfortable to be in the minority.)

I have always favored the vision of America that holds the principles of our Founders in highest regard, judging all our choices for law and policy in the light of how well they match those ideals. To protect and encourage diversity and debate are paramount, for strength arises from collaboration and synthesis and the public interest is served when ideas are adopted (or abandoned) based on open examination of their intrinsic merits. Unfortuately, this vision requires a great deal of effort to maintain—not least due to its requirement that people coexist with others whose viewpoints or lifestyles they find strange, distasteful, or outright offensive—and it can be difficult to explain in simple, concrete terms. (Eric Zorn, among others, has pointed out that the Democratic Party, and the American center-left in general, have done a very bad job of even attempting to show that this vision has its own roots of ‘moral values’.) Moreover, this viewpoint can be seen as an impractical luxury in ‘unstable times’, for the very openness which is prized can be exploited by miscreants, foreign or domestic, to disrupt our society.

However, last week’s results confirm that the majority has swung back to a vision that instead exalts the people and place of America, judging our choices based on how closely they match the needs and interests of the archetypal American. This view is vastly easier to articulate, especially to the less savvy citizenry, and it can result in quicker, more clear-cut decisions on public-policy issues. Yet, it seems to me that this vision runs a much higher risk of not only creating a ‘tyranny of the majority’—marginalization of those views and groups that stray from the archetypal norm—but also pursuing policies that ignore long-term damage due to short-term, visceral (jingoistic?) attractiveness.

Despite the rantings of Ann Coulter and her ilk, my unease with the current majoritarian view does not reflect a hatred or disdain for America and the archetypal American. Rather, my point is that the views and interests of that archetype aren’t ipso facto true and good, and even when they are that doesn’t mean that they are the only or the best ways to achieve good things; all I want is for other ideas to be considered and respected. We remain the most powerful nation in the world, and that places upon us a responsibility to be more deliberate and restrained in our actions, both in the world and towards our own citizens. Hopefully the American public, despite its slim but clear penchant for the viewpoint of the current Bush administration, will exercise its responsibility to ensure that the more cynical, extreme elements of the government do not overinterpret the recent ‘mandate’ and implement damaging policies which the public will spend years fixing.

2004-11-06

Popcorn, Outpost-style

As we sat down at The Outpost last night, the owner dropped off a little treat created by the new chef: a little container of popcorn drizzled with truffle oil, thyme, lavender, and some pepper. We were a bit incredulous at first…but wow, it was quite tasty! Even Liz thought it was yummy, and she’s not very big on popcorn.

Gotta love places that experiment like that…

2004-11-01

Sammy’s world

I’ve been watching baseball nearly all my life, and I thought I had learned how to structure a lineup. The leadoff and second spots are for the players with the best speed and on-base percentage, the three and four holes are for those with the best combination of batting average and power, the five and six spots (and sometimes seventh) are for the ones with decent average and occasional but not consistent power, and the bottom of the order is for those players whose primary contributions are defensive. Seems pretty simple.

However, apparently I’ve gotten it all wrong. According to Sammy Sosa, position in the lineup is actually determined properly by seniority and respect. If you’re paid like a superstar, and been treated like a superstar in the past, you are apparently entitled to bat third or fourth in the order regardless of whether you are hitting like Babe Ruth or Ruth Bader Ginsberg. To lower such a player in the lineup is outrageous mistreatment.

Sheesh.

Back when he could back it up with .285-60-120 stats, Sosa’s prima donna streak could be tolerated as the cute quirk of a gifted athlete, but now that he’s been hitting more like a utility infielder (when he’s played at all) the act has just gotten old. If the Mets want him, fine by me.

2004-10-31

Final thoughts on the lead-up to Election Day 2004

We probably won’t know anything definitive by the end of Tuesday night, but at least the political commercials will stop!! Interesting editorials: the New Yorker lays out a fine argument for why Kerry should be favored over Bush. From the Chicago Tribune, Steve Chapman presents an interesting explanation of why someone who usually votes Republican or Libertarian can’t take that chance this time, while Eric Zorn posted several links ( one, two, three, of them!) from conservatives who can’t stand the thought of a Bush victory.

Kinda sad that the results will likely be driven to a large degree by the voter turnout levels. One would like to think that the decision on who occupies the office of President isn’t determined by the vagaries of weather and which political parties have the best organization and discipline. I predict that lawsuits will be in motion in at least two states by Thursday. I’ve determined that what bothers me most about the prospect of a Bush victory isn’t actually four more years of his administration; while I strongly disagree with most of that groups policy decisions, I have faith that our federal system simply doesn’t allow even a determined tyrant or blathering idiot (of which Bush is neither) to single-handedly destroy the country. No, what bothers me most is what his re-election says about the American citizenry. To me, it would cry out that:

  • Accountability doesn’t matter. The President has greatest direct impact on three types of public policy: tax/budget, foreign, and military. The Bush administration has exhibited major blunders in all three—respectively the 2001 budget resolutions, international anti-terrorism efforts, and the planning for the invasion and (especially) occupation of Iraq. Genuine standards of accountability require that a person who has exhibited colossal lapses of judgement in the major facets of his job should be relieved of that job.
  • Style is more important than substance. Bush’s team has carefully honed platitudes that imply that he’s clearly (and successfully) taking it to the terrorists while fighting for good ol’ traditional American values. The problem is, as comforting as the words are they don’t seem to have much connection with reality once you dig a little deeper. (Not that the Democrats are really any better here, unfortunately). Resolution and bravado have their place, and can be effective (usually as a feint or to call an obvious bluff) but I desperately hope people come to realize that they are tactical approaches, not bases for effective strategy.
  • The intuition of the right people is all you need. This administration has been notorious for its insistence upon knowing that it has the right answers and not bothering to mull things a little more or get independent confirmations (indeed, they’ve gone so far as to actively refuse the help of others—and brag about it). Unfortunately, people love to have simple answers to complex issues and to believe that someone else is taking care of it for them, especially when the ‘fixers’ frequently report how well things are going. Well, there’s nothing more dangerous than hubris by those in control of government and military power. Life is complex, and just because an idea feels right, fits your worldview, or seems logical at first glance doesn’t mean it is correct or will be effective.

Wilco at the Auditorium Theater

Things you don’t expect to see at a rock concert:

  • Ushers in jackets, vests, and bow ties showing patrons to their seats
  • Upholstered seats
  • Gilded columns and arches
  • The opening act was some band called Deerhoof, who sounded like Belly trying to channel some 1970s art rock with a dash of Bjork…but with only limited success. I appreciate what they were trying to do, and certainly understand why they were paired with Wilco, but they’ll need a lot more work to properly hone the ability to throw dissonance and sudden style/theme/phrasing changes into their songs.

    As for the main attraction, they sounded quite good. The sound engineers did a very good job with the balance, not getting it too loud or tinny; although on a few of the more cacaphonous endings it got a little muddy, that probably was due to where we were in the back reaches of the main balcony—can’t make it sound perfect everywhere. The band did an excellent job of arranging their main set, playing most of the slower, more mellow songs at the beginning and transitioning to a higher proportion of more intense songs as the show went along. Jeff Tweedy kept his banter to a minimum, with most of the non-musical content coming from various film loops (of flowers, buildings, bugs, fish, etc.) on a large screen.

    Overall, the show fit my expectations of good art rock. Wilco’s music is a mixture of mellow and intense, with the mellow not falling into sappy ballads and the intense not rising to the music-to-piss-off-your-parents level. Some songs are straightforward and catchy, but more experimental arrangements and phrasings are thrown in here and there. Playing live allowed them to jam a little bit on some of the codas of their more upbeat tunes, but they didn’t go overboard.

2004-10-30

Lunar eclipse October 27, 2004

27 Oct 2004 lunar eclipse sequence, part a

27 Oct 2004 lunar eclipse sequence, part b

27 Oct 2004 lunar eclipse sequence, part c

A unified image is also available. All images were taken outside my apartment using only a tripod and a 200-mm f/4.5 lens with my Pentax *ist D operating at ISO 800, with exposure times ranging from 1/180 to 1/4 second. The images were composited using The GIMP; they were adjusted slightly for intensity variations but no processing was performed beyond that done by the camera itself.

2004-10-29

Farewell, Stoney

The last casuality of the 2004 Cubs implosion is now in: Steve Stone. What a loss. It’s too bad that some members of the team were too thin-skinned to realize that Stone’s analysis of the team was nearly always spot on. By driving him away from the broadcast booth the players have deprived their fans of a long-time favorite and have deprived themselves of a man whose uncanny knowledge of the game and critical eye could have been a great asset. Thanks for nothing, guys! Good luck, Stoney!

2004-10-27

Red Sox win! Now it’s Chicago’s turn…

Boston did it, an amazing run over the last week and a half. However, given that this was 86 years in the making, their World Series win was somewhat anti-climactic, what with the way they won the ALCS over the hated Yankees and then were never seriously challenged by St. Louis after the 8th inning of game 1. Ah, well, drama isn’t required.

I will admit to taking some perverse pleasure in watching the Cardinals and their fans sit there, dumbfounded, while it all got away from them. Having to watch the Red Sox celebrate on the Busch Stadium field had to be another twist of the knife…or did it happen so quickly that everyone in the Sea of Red was suffering from shock?

The downside, of course, is that there won’t be any more (Major League) baseball games for several months.

Well, at least now we can stop hearing about fictitious curses made up by members of the Northeast literati and work on breaking a real one—uttered by a tavern owner and actually documented!—that’s been afflicting a certain Chicago baseball team…

P.S. I couldn’t help but notice—since they repeated the phrase ad nauseam whenever it was appropriate—that the announcers were calling the troops watching from Baghdad the "Multi-National Force". Hmm, a little bias from Fox, perhaps? When Dubya sqwaked "You forgot about Poland!", I didn’t realize he was referring to their rabid baseball fans.

Boo!

Jack-o-Lantern in light

Jack-o-Lantern in darkness

What’s sad is that we carved this, tonight, one night after seeing the first Christmas commercial of the season….

2004-10-23

Odyssey Dinner Cruise

To celebrate her birthday, the lovely Liz and I took a lakefront dinner cruise aboard the Odyssey. Trying to park in the Navy Pier garage was a big hassle, but overall the night was an enjoyable:

  • Food: The appetizers were tasty and well-presened (although only one of the three was Liz-friendly). While my salad was adequate but uninspiring, Liz had a wonderful roasted-pepper-tomato bisque. My lobster ravioli was tasty but needed a little kick, and the vegetarian plate brough out for Liz seemed satisfying.
  • Beverage: The cocktails were well-made (if a little smallish). Several good wines were on the menu.
  • Ambience: Having a live band is always a plus, and while I’ve heard better they were in tune and knew what sort of tempo to hit for a dinner seating. I didn’t shell out the extra $50 to guarantee a window table, but it really didn’t matter since the dining area is small enough that no table is too far from a window—besides, the boat stays about a mile offshore so the window tables don’t really provide much of an advantage in viewing. And, oh, what a view! The Chicago skyline is fantastic at night—I think the variation in shape, height, and style of the buildings is part of what makes it so fascinating to look at—and the boat parked with a wondeful view of the Navy Pier fireworks.

This doesn’t qualify as something to do with great regularity, but I would say that it would be worth it every once in a while to spend an evening doing something a little different.

2004-10-21

Magic for the Olde Towne Team

Wow, yay Red Sox! First time a baseball team ever came back from a 3-0 deficit to win a postseason series. Only the second time a team has ever beaten the Yankees in an ALCS. The World Series will be coming to a grand old ballpark, and I can follow a team that I actually, genuinely would not mind seeing win. (And I simply could not feel any sympathy for those poor, dejected New York fans that Fox kept showing for the last couple innings.)

That these happened at all—and in Yankee Stadium, no less!—will certainly not go down well with the Big Stein. Hopefully the Commish can keep a lid on his inevitable rantings and ravings until after the Fall Classic is done. I’m thinking that the likely first casuality will be GM Brian Cashman.

2004-10-20

Poll-bias analyses: hand-waving that misses the biggest problem

In recent days, some story or rant on the problems and biases afflicting current polls on the presidential race—all aiming to explain either why the results are all over the place or how they will translate into results come November 2—seems to be only a couple clicks away. I think the best I’ve found is here (not only is it succinct, but Auntie Beeb has a long history of balanced news and certainly has no particular vested interest in the outcome of an election on the other side of the pond).

The common thread through all the more detailed explanations of why the results can or should be believed (see electoral-vote.com for a decent rundown of polling methods, including links to the explanations by the major pollsters themselves) is the attempt to show that the various types of underrepresentation in the samples—such as college students, military personnel, low-income workers, and the ballyhood cell-phone-only crowd—can be cleverly weighted to effectively remove any biases. Ask the pollsters, and they’ll trot out loads of data and explanations based on statistical theory. It all sounds very impressive.

Unfortunately, while they’ve got the formulas and the data-crunching down, it seems to me they are missing a crucial element—one whose absence from the analyses astounds me. Implicit in all statistical theory (or, more precisely, sampling theory) are the assumptions that

  • All members of the population are either identical or differ in predictable (and known) ways
  • All members of the population will react to the effect under study in predicatble (and known) ways
  • Population members are affected only by the conditions under study and not by the study itself
For molecules in a container of gas, or items coming off a manufacturing assembly line, these conditions hold up…but they don’t describe people particularly well! Thus, going to great efforts to ensure that the sampling methodology follows the rules necessary to generate a statistically complete sample misses the point: if the underlying population doesn’t intrinsically follow the expected laws, any analysis of the results that doesn’t acknowledge this is going to have problems.

Actually, my feeling is that the distribution of people’s opinions and reactions to the sociopolitical climate does follow predictable patterns, but only for very large populations (a la the psychohistory laid out in Asimov’s Foundation novels). However, these distributions are inherently volatile—they’re certainly influenced by the opinion-poll results themselves—and probably not the smooth bell curves favored by analysts. Outfits like Gallup and Zogby typically sample between 700 and 1000 people; Poisson statistics implies resultant margins of error in the range of 3 to 4 percent, yet the actual distributions are probably much fuzzier and so such error estimates are probably much too small. 1000 people is probably much too small a sample to accurately measure Cook County, let alone the U.S. as a whole. No wonder that in a close race the poll results bounce around from day to day.

2004-10-19

Insight on contemporary culture

Ed Zander, Motorola CEO, on why he forced cutbacks on PowerPoint presentations in the boardroom:

We drown ourselves in data and not information

That would seem to hold true beyond the corporate suite as well…

2004-10-18

Double the geeky fun!

A digital camera is great! It’s not only a precision optical gadget, with its own quirks and terminology…it’s also a small computer! Fun for several facets of my geekiness.

Moon on 25 Sep 2004

The Cheat...with alpacas

Hey, I can even use it to record the goings on in my life, maybe I should try that now…

2004-10-13

Compare and contrast, third and final time

Hmm, no zingers, nothing really substansively new tonight. Liz noticed that this one covered a broad range of domestic topics, a much broader range than in the first debate. I think that’s what kept things tamer and closer to the script, for there was no single topic to keep returning to and thus ratchet up the rhetoric. Oh, well, I guess I’ll have to judge on style and presentation—it’s essentially coming down to that anyway…

  • Wow, Kerry has really bright white teeth. Unnatural, almost.
  • Dubya’s face looks crooked. Liz didn’t notice anything particularly different, maybe I just never noticed before.
  • Maybe it’s the height difference throwing his head back, but Bush looked kinda spacey whenever he was watching Kerry speak. The slightly open mouth didn’t help.
  • For the first 20-30 minutes, Bush seemed kind of flustered and agitated. He seemed to compose himself better in the second half, but the agitation remained. Kerry seemed poised and in command of his statements (and facts) throughout.
  • "I have led Congress", said Bush. WTF? His M.O. since his days as governor has been to stay back until the legislature is close to something that will pass, then to swoop in and throw his support to it with such vigor that his spinmeisters make it look like it was his bill all along. This is leadership?
  • Umm, what was with the abandoned comment about listening to network news organiations? Was that supposed to be a joke?
  • Kerry keeps dropping the 1990s in there—without mentioning Clinton. Subtle. In the 1990s we had an apparently good economy, low unemployment, a budget surplus, and more blood spilled in political circles than in acuality. The 2004 version of "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

Overall I’d give Kerry the ever-so-slightest edge, simply because he was more poised and in command of facts, while Dubya spent more time answering slightly defensively and in generalities.

Alrighty, that was the last modicum of honest and civil comparisons of the candidates and their ideas, for the next two weeks everything gets harsher…

A telling omission

Today Slashdot posted the initial responses by Kerry, Dubya, and Nader to the online Presidential Youth Debate organized by the New Voters Project. As I skimmed over these I didn’t see much that was particularly new. However, Bush’s response to the question " When is it appropriate for a leader to change their opinion?" was intriguing…for its absence. Nada. Completely spaced the question. Okay, maybe it was skipped inavertently, but I’m a bit skeptical. From the beginning—clearly apparent in the spring of 2001 when the initial budget/tax cut/economy battles began—this administration has been all about staying on message, deciding the answers at the start and spinning the rhetoric to support sticking with those answers and policies despite the actual facts. I’ll at least give them credit for recognizing a minefield and thus not even trying to craft a lame, convoluted answer.

2004-10-12

Nail salon capital?

On the walk to the El this morning I noticed that the site formerly occupied by a dry cleaners’ is soon to be a nail salon. That will make a total of four on Southport—just in the stretch between Belmont and Irving Park. And that doesn’t even count the three or four hair salons on the strip that also do nails. How many nail salons does this area need, really? It’s not like this neighborhood has the density of apartments and mid-20 club-hoppers like that of Lincoln Park, and I’ve never seen huge crowds at any of the extant salons.

I don’t get it, it seems like the same mentality that pushes Hollywood to make three, four, and five (progressively worse) sequels whenever a movie hits it big. Putting a second ice cream shop just four blocks from the first one on Southport seemed a dubious proposition to me, but putting in a fourth salon just seems plain silly. Liz astutely commented that people typically find a salon they like and go there exclusively for long periods of time. A new restaruant or tavern would seem to have been a better idea, for even restaurants on the same block with similar fare will almost always have enough differences to keep people going to all of them semi-regularly.

Maybe I’m just bitter…in the last few months all the new spots opening on Southport seem to have been salons or women’s boutiques. C’mon, a music store maybe? Another restaurant? Please?

<font style=”font-size: 70%;”>Update on 13 October: Liz pointed out that two of the recent shops actually sell men’s clothes too. Whatever, that’s still not the fun kind of place I would have liked to see… </font>

2004-10-05

When veep candidates attack

To my complete lack of surprise, the VP debate was not nearly as interesting as the presidential debate last week. It was certainly testier—a lot more mud-slinging—but definitely lacked new information or insight; Liz put it well when she described it as a lot of "my dad can beat up your dad!" kind of exchanges. The biggest zinger actually came from the moderator:

Cheney: Hmm…I can answer that, but I’ll need more than 30 seconds—<br> Moderator: Well, that’s all you’ve got.

Edwards seemed uncomfortable and halting during a lot of the foreign-policy section, but seemed to hit more of a stride when the questions shifted to domestic policy; the sit-down format certainly didn’t play to his strength. Cheney lived up to the notion of "George Bush’s brains", seeming much more in command of himself and his facts than did Dubya last week.

Overall, it seemed a draw or perhaps a very mild win for Cheney. I wonder if the negative tone and continued repetition of well-established campaign themes and one-liners will annoy any who watched.

Post mortem of a season gone wrong

Walking past an empty Wrigley Field while deciding which playoff team I dislike least is quite disappointing. To call the Cubs’ season a failure after they won 89 games, with elimination from the postseason not happening until the end of game 161, is an exaggeration, but there’s no doubt that the end—especially the collapse in the last week (three straight losses to the Reds?)—is a bitter disappointment given the team’s talent level and pre-season expectations. Maybe a look inside the numbers to figure out how this happened can help…

  • The team seemed to live and die by the home run: 235 in total (1st in NL), 45% of their runs via the longball, 72-40 when hitting at least one homer, 17-33 when hitting none. The percentage points to a team that had trouble manufacturing runs, and that’s borne out by the non-HR record.
  • Mmm, their record broken down by runs scored and allowed is even more revealing:
    When scored When allowed When differential
    1 1-10 25-3 19-30
    2 5-13 15-4 15-10
    3 5-19 16-8 14-10
    4 14-6 13-13 12-8
    5+ 64-13 14-45 29-15
  • 24 blown saves, with a resulting record of 8-14. Blech!

So, the 2004 Cubs they really needed to score a bunch of runs to win games: score 4 or more and they cleaned up (with a fair number of blowouts), score 3 or less and go home unhappy. That certainly confirms the impression of a streaky, all-or-nothing offense—hmm, exactly what you’d expect from a team in love with the home run and allergic to manufacturing them! That record in one-run games is particularly distressing; a number of analyses over the years have shown that much of a team’s record in such games is due to luck, but it also supports the impression of a team that could neither hold leads late nor scratch out extra runs when necessary. Add to that a shaky bullpen and its clear that this team lost many games they should have won (hence the horrid one-run record); win even a few of those games and the Cubbies win the Wild Card.

How did this happen? I have to belive that the spate of injuries played a role. The team lost its top two starters for 10 starts apiece, the closer for nearly all the season, various relievers from time to time, two outfielders, and its third baseman (and offensive leader) for two weeks. That these DL trips occurred throughout the season made it hard to pick up replacements or get into a rhythm. But I think the ripple effects were worse: hitters pressing, relievers moved into roles for which they weren’t suited. Even when injured players returned there were issues, like Prior having to work back into shape during games that counted and Ramirez losing several steps on the basepaths due to lingering soreness. All those together certainly made it more difficult for pitchers to bear down and hitters to scratch out a few more runs.

However, by far I think the biggest problem was that many of the Cubs simply played stupid baseball. Baserunning blunders (how the hell does a veteran get doubled off second base several times in the same season?!?), swinging at unhittable pitches, going for the homer rather than the line drive, nibbling at the corners. The sniping between the team and the announcers was probably the most glaring example of how much the team had lost focus (WLS-TV’s Mark Giangreco said it best (regarding the late-season dustup between Steve Stone and Dusty Baker)

That this is even a story shows just why this team has gone in the tank.

So, I think that explains it. Swap out some players and replace them with ones with better fundamentals and greater propensity for manufacturing runs, and perhaps the Cubs of 2005 will improve by a few more games and fulfill the promise of their core talent.

Tidbits on America and its entertainment industry

  • Trey Parker is certainly no stranger to crossing the line with raunchy stuff, but the MPAA’s attempt to rate his new movie, Team America, with an NC-17 rating due to a sex scene between two puppets seems absurd. C’mon, decapitating puppets and throwing them off buildings is okay, but having them flop around each other is too much for the impressionable youth of our country? The farce surrounding puppet sexual activity aside, I can’t figure out why people find violence in movies acceptable but sexual situations are anathema. What kind of message is this supposed to be sending, anyway?
  • On a more upbeat note, there’s an interesting (if somewhat longish) article that analyzes the economics of hits vs. obscure items in the music, movie, and book industries. The conclusion is interesting: by showing that there’s a huge market for the non-hits, outfits like Amazon, Google, eBay, and NetFlix may be at the vanguard of a change in the entertainment industries that allows broader availability of, well, everything—not just the proven hits and in-vogue acts. I hope this analysis proves true, for not only would it result in downward pressure on prices, more importantly it would allow greater exposure for artists and writers who want to make stuff that is good—well, at least genuine—rather than just what can appeal to popular tastes. An interesting read, definitely.

2004-09-30

Notes on the joint press conference, er, debate

Figured I jot down some thoughts as I kept an eye on the first debate. No pretense that it will be unbiased…

  • Kerry seems forceful and on the attack early, Dubya seems a little taken aback. Clever (if perhaps inflammatory) choice of words to term the use of local armies in Afghanistan as ‘outsourcing’
  • Terrorists are a "group of folks" who disklike us? Odd choice of terms…
  • Did I see The Smirk sneaking in?
  • Kerry seems definitely more adept with the facts, while Bush seems hesitant when trying to explain things and falls back on generalities. Given the history of Gore-vs.-Bush and the expressed views of a lot of voters, this difference is probably a wash overall.
  • "The way to succeed is to send consistent, strong messages…" That’s telling: this Administration has been long on message (and staying on message) since the beginning. Looks like Kerry’s trying to contrast planning vs. message.
  • Another Kerry theme: Bush might have done some good things, but he’s done many in the wrong way and made numerous other mistakes. The Undecideds will have to choose whether those mistakes outweigh the percieved good things.
  • Kerry’s angles about certainty, and how it’s not flip-flopping if you change course to correct mistakes in light of new information, certainly articulated what many in his base—especially the Anybody But Bush contingent—wanted to hear. Wonder how that will play with the Undecideds.

Overall, the format worked out a little better than I thought it would. Liz commented how some real unscripted back-and-forth would be good, but the differences between the two candidates, both in terms of policy and style, seemed to emerge. Bush had a number of dead-air moments, blinking vacantly for a few seconds, but didn’t seem to flop and certainly kept on message. Kerry seemed to find a voice, always appearing composed, aware, and ready to make a specific, concise point.

I’m a little surprised that the Bush campaign agreed to the first debate having a foreign-policy focus, since that is probably his strongest suit. Kerry certainly stood his ground, perhaps even gaining some by articulating a clear view (from his perspective) of past mistakes and future plans. If Kerry did in fact gain traction here, the Bushies may have some work to do in the later domestic-policy-focused debates where Democrats traditionally have a slight advantage.

Of course, now the real fun begins as the tizzy of analysis, re-analysis, spin, and analysis of analyses commence…

2004-09-27

Sisyphus is clearly the third-party mascot

A recent interview with the Libertarians’ presidential candidate rekindled my musings on the role and viability of ‘Third Parties’ in the U.S. I’ve debated several TP-leaning friends in recent months, and since I’ve asserted repeatedly that trends simply don’t bode well for TPs it seemed about time that I actually gather some evidence. A quick Googling turned up the basic info I wanted—TPs have averaged 5.2% of the vote since the end of WWII, and the only TP in U.S. history to gain significant share in more than one election was the percursor to the modern Republican Party.

I found these numbers in this interesting analysis of the roles of political parties in U.S. politics. I found it enlightening, as it indicates that the very structure of our electoral system is what essentially dooms TPs to the margins. Certainly, this is due in some degree to the election laws put in place by the entrenched parties (although I reject the idea that it’s some grand conspiracy on the part of the Demopublicans, they simply have no incentive to tweak the system in such a way to make it easier for challengers). Further, I was already aware that the plurality-voting system tends to result in two-party systems. However, until reading this piece it had never occurred to me that the primary system also strengthens the tendency by giving insurgent candidates and irritated voters viable access to the nominating process of the major parties: TPs aren’t really necessary, for a maverick can use the existing major parties to gain office without needing to build a new structure (see the 1986 Illinois elections for an excellent, if scary, example). Besides, in the U.S. the real strength of the major parties is not in their ideology (the distinctions are very small on average) but rather that joining one grants you access to networks of people—some of whom agree with your stands and others who don’t—who have pledged to work with you to govern if you are elected to office.

Would altering the electoral process give TPs a better chance? I really don’t think so:

  • Proportional representation? Well, small parties certainly seem more prevalent in nations that use it, but these parties almost never actually govern but instead join up with larger parties in relatively stable center-left and center-right coalitions. (When one does get more prominent, it’s usually not seen as a Good Thing: see France, Denmark, and Austria in the last few years.) Break up the Democratic and Republican parties into their various factions and give those factions names without altering their general alignments, and the U.S. system would probably be indistiguishable from others around the world. The biggest difference is that the alignments, compromises, and deals are done by legistators and party officials rather than voters.
  • Approval voting? This system would almost certainly increase TPs’ share of the vote since no one would worry that casting a vote for one candidate they might like could lead to a distasteful candidate’s victory in a close election. Approval voting would also provide a more accurate snapshot of the public’s sentiment regarding the various candidates, but it doesn’t change the fact that a single candidate needs a majority (or plurality). That usually results in wins by compromise candidates whom a large fraction of the electorate can support (or at least tolerate), which is essentially what the usual nominees of the major parties are anyway.

Yet, I think there’s something even more fundamental that works against TPs: all aspects of government necessarily entail whittling down various options to single decisions. That need to find consensus pushes everything towards the middle, and thus those who eschew the unusual and embrace the mainstream are apt to be the most successful; this tendency is especially strong when the job is to properly allocate finite resources in a constructive way, which is essentially what government is supposed to do. The raison d’etre of TPs seems to be that different ideas need to be tried, but until we can come up with a system that allows multiple differing (and sometimes conflicting) proposals to be implemented simultaneously, those who vehemently disassociate from the mainstream—which TP candidates and supporters do almost by definition—are doomed to play only a marginal, indirect role in government and society no matter how much merit their ideas possess.

Seven nerve-wracking days left

By the standards of my quarter-century history with the Cubs, I should be very happy right now. The Cubs are winning more games than they lose. With a week left they’re only one victory from matching their win total from last year and have already guaranteed themselves consecutive winning seasons for the first time since before I was born. They’re not only in contention for a playoff spot, but leading it and in control of their own fate. To top it off, the team has amazingly done all this despite devastating injuries to key players (Prior, Wood, Sosa, Borowski, Grudzielanek, Ramirez, Hollandsworth) throughout the season.

But oh, how high (and deserved!) preseason expectations alter one’s outlook. Instead of enjoying the final-week sprint to the playoffs, I grouse about the potential that went unrealized due to boneheaded baserunning and the fragility of various muscles. Rather than graciously accept the mulligan offered up by the Dodgers to offset this lost weekend in Shea, I worry that it’s just setting up Cubdom for another Garvey or Clark or Bartman moment in the coming weeks. When did excitement about the Cubs just playing in October give way to griping that they may not get far enough?

Ah, well, I guess they wouldn’t be the Cubs if they didn’t break your heart.

2004-09-24

The gay marriage debate: improperly framed

At the top of the Tribune this afternoon was the headline "Obama opposes gay marriage". Despite the attention-grabbing text, there’s really nothing new here: as he’s previously stated on several occasions, based on his personal faith he does not support formal recognition of gay marriage, but rather he does support civil unions to provide gay couples with some equivalent (and deserved) legal benefits. Even a director from Equality Illinois concedes that while this position is somewhat muddied it is at least palatable.

However, what struck me as I read the article was not the election-year politics, but instead the realization that the whole recent debate on gay marriage has been framed all wrong. Instead of debating whether the structures of marriage should be extended to include gays, perhaps it would be better to examine why government entities continue to automatically extend legal rights based on religious grounds. Face it, for most people marriage is primarily associated with religion—it affects choice of venue, officiant, when to have it, how to raise the kids, etc.—and the legal niceties just come along for the ride. Most people of such persuasions do honestly feel that there is something wrong with the sanctification of a homosexual relationship. While that attitude may be bigoted, it’s no more justified to force them to accept gays than it is for them to force gays into a marginalized role. Unfortunately trying to go this route is unlikely to work: at best you get a Mexican standoff between the cultural groups, and at worse you get backlash ranging from more oppressive laws to hate crimes.

No, the real problem to be addressed is that, according to the principles upon which this country was founded, the state shouldn’t be in the business of legally santifiying honors conferred by religous groups. Any rights, privileges, or honors bestowed by a government entitiy should be available to anyone. Okay, fine, an accredited religious ceremony can perhaps be a shortcut to the legal rights of marriage as an action that shows the couple meets the usual eligibility requirements…but the legal civil union should be more clearly separate from the religious marriage, and moreover should be obtainable by alternate means. I wonder how things would have gone differently in the last couple of years had advocates stayed focused on this approach, keeping the debate centered on legal/economic aspects rather than moral ones. Certainly, gay couples want more than just better legal rights and insurance rates, they want social acceptance of their relationships; however, since open-mindedness and good behavior can’t be legislated, but tax rates and survivorship rights can, it would be more effective to focus on the latter.

Regulated monopolies shouldn’t advertise

Walking through downtown, I happened to see several ComEd advertisements, all touting their current "we’re working to keep you happy" theme. WTF? Why are they spending this money on ads? It’s not like they need to obtain market share, as they are the only provider of residential power service in the area. It must be some attempt to make people feel better about them…but such an attempt is misguided and an irritating waste of their money—which comes out of my rate payments. I don’t need or want to have warm fuzzy feelings about my utility provider—especially when such feelings are irrelevant due to the lack of choice—I simply want to know that power is reliable, the profit margins are just enough to fund continual improvements, and service or billing problems are resolved promptly and satisfactorily. Instead of billboards, ComEd could better instill such feelings by taking the money they currently spend on ads and put it into rate reductions, better equipment, and/or better employee training. Too bad that municipal franchise agreements don’t require this sort of behavior.

2004-09-23

Necessary vs. Right: accept the consequences

As I have for many years running, I tuned in for the start of a new season for Law &amp; Order. (Kudos to the producers for the excellent choice of Dennis Farina as Jerry Orbach’s replacement.) Like has happened frequently, the first episode waded right into topics of current interest, namely a story involving U.S. Army reservists, Abu Ghraib prison, and the moral/political issues surrounding our Iraq involvement. While the speechifying was a bit overly done at times, at least the writers let characters express a number of viewpoints (both pro and con) without trying to champion one or the other.

A couple ideas that were raised were bouncing around in my head ever since. (Wow, American TV can be more than brain-melting drivel!) Essentially, attempts are made to justify several things as OK as long as they are done in furtherance of a Good Cause:

  • The exemption of soldiers from later scrutiny or disparagement of their actions (especially by civilians and homefront military), since war is a dirty but sometimes-necessary business whose burden few are willing to accept (hmm, reminiscent of the final courtroom showdown in A Few Good Men
  • Abuse of Bad Guys because they don’t like us yet might provide useful information
  • A war whose support is tenuous, ongoing costs are high, and original justifcations have turned out false, yet has produced some desirable results

The second point is covered quite well in this article from the October 2003 Atlantic Monthly, but all of these appear to have a common theme: while the Ends don’t completely justify the Means, since ugly things are sometimes necessary and expedient they can be OK as long as they’re done in suport of a Good Thing. After mulling it, I’ve decided that while this does have some merit—our concepts of how the world should work can’t cover every eventuality, and sometimes what’s Right and what’s Necessary don’t coincide—it doesn’t exonerate anyone from the consequences of actions that aren’t considered Right. If a statesmen leads a country to war for the wrong reasons, or a soldier commits acts that would be considered atrocities under ‘normal’ circumstances, they can only be completely exonerated if done in the heat of the moment where time for consideration and planning weren’t available. If circumstances allowed some degree of reflection and planning, and the decision to violate established norms and rules was made deliberately, then the person must accept that he/she did something Wrong, and the subsequent pushishment or tarnishment that is deserved. Certainly, if the end result was a Good Thing then a pardon (whether of the official state executive variety or one of a more social nature) is warranted, but the stain still remains on that person’s record; if nothing else, when someone has let a situation get to a point where the only practical way out is to violate established rules of conduct, then that person has obviously failed at his job and thus deserves to be relieved of those responsibilities.

2004-09-20

Digital photography, take 2

After my earlier trials and tribulations with my recently acquired Pentax *ist D, I finally received it back today and in working order. Hooray! So nice to be able to test out various things rather than simply reading the manual. The funny thing is that I believe I will need to unlearn much that I took for granted with my old K-1000: the new camera has lots of buttons and settings that either take care of exposure settings automatically or allow me to tweak them with fingertip controls.

I especially like the ability to not only ratchet up the detector sensitivity (all the way to ISO 3200, if I’m willing to deal with extra noise) but also automatically adjust the color balance, for that allows me to actually take some decent indoor photos where a flash would be bad:

Chloe
the cat

As an added bonus, it was almost trivial to set things up to get the images off the camera…on Linux! Why not go the easy route and use Liz’s Windoze box and the software that came with the camera? Well, the two-processor Linux machine in the closet is the only one that has USB connectors on the front. So, that machine is now set up to automount the camera CF drive when it’s plugged in (thanks to the mass storage driver which appears to work flawlessly), and a few more minutes of configuration set up my other Linux box to automount that partition. Then, a quick munge of the Samba configuration and voila! Plug the camera in, access the files from anywhere on my network.

Finally, I took a quick set of test photos of the night sky using the camera’s RAW image format and was able to convert them to FITS format using Dave Coffin’s dcraw program and ImageMagick. Gotta love open source! And, while the camera’s on-board processing of images is quite good, especially for general-purpose photography, it’s nice to know that when I want to do some fancier processing—especially for astrophotography—I can manipulate the pixel values however I see fit.

Hark, someone at the CPD has a clue!

A Wentworth area police sergeant has proposed that officers simply ticket, rather than arrest, possessors of marijuana. The quoted statistics on the disposition of most cases—94% dismissed for amounts under 2.5g, and 81% of those from 2.5-10g—make it astonishing that no one has looked at this before. Besides, while it’s technically an illegal substance, everyone knows that it’s a waste of police time to go after your run-of-the-mill toker who just wants to chill out with some friends and snacks. Further, the sergeant pointed out that the fines could have raked in almost $5 million last year…I’ve long thought that the best way to keep pot under some semblance of control would be to legalize and tax it; when you think about how often any one user might get pinched for a ticket, the fines almost seem like a de facto sales tax. Brilliant!

2004-09-18

They still play football in Champaign

Hey, look! The Illini won their second game of the season, so they’re already vastly improved from last year’s debacle. I would have thought that it wouldn’t take a last-minute touchdown to beat the likes of Western Michigan, but I suppose that MAC teams aren’t pushovers and the talent on the Orange and Blue side is less than overwhelming. I’m still not confident in having much to watch between the end of the World Series and the start of college basketball season. Can someone find a way to clone Kurt Kittner and bring some excitement (and winning) back to Memorial Stadium?

2004-09-14

Security style over substance

The last couple of mornings, the CTA has been performing extra security sweeps during the morning commute. For the most part this hasn’t been a problem as I’ve only noticed delays of a couple minutes. No big deal, really, and just like the extra uniformed cops on the street corners in September and October of 2001, maybe a little show of force will make a few miscreants move along and make some of the public feel just a little safer.

However, while waiting at Merchandise Mart both mornings, I noticed something that bugged me. In addition to a uniformed cop and some CTA workers in obnoxiously colored vests, the CTA hired an outside security firm (Securitas, I think) to provide extra staff of the canine variety. At first glance they grab your attention: combat boots, black commando-style cargo pants, black golf shirts with official-looking patches, black low-crown caps, dark cop-sunglasses, and muzzled german shepards. They have the paramilitary look you’d expect from seeing TV and movies…and that’s exactly the problem, they’re trying way too hard to look impressive; it’s so obvious that they are trying to look tough that they just look ridiculous. Sorry, I don’t think too many bad guys are going to be particularly intimidated by a 5’6" woman in costume just because she scowls, has patches on her shirt, and has a dog.

Even worse, the dogs themselves don’t look particularly threatening. Indeed, I watched one this morning and it was obviously nervous: tail down, slightly panting, definitely looking like it would rather be anywhere but in a crowd of people. This is a line of defense against do-badders on the El? Sigh.

2004-09-13

Wild and ugly to the end

To this point I still can’t decide who has the best chances to win the NL Wild Card spot for 2004, I think it will come down to the last weekend. The Cubs, Astros, Giants, Padres, and Marlins all have legitimate shots, yet none appears to have the talent—or has exhibited the determination—to pull away from the field. To me it looks like a pure pick’em situation…whoever can pull off a solid winning skein first will probably get the postseason tickets.

What’s so frustrating, from the perspective of a Cubs fan, is that the North Siders by all rights should have the best chance: the fewest losses, a decent schedule (even with no more off days), and the most power. Hell, they probably should have pulled away already. However, I’ve noticed that the biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2003 team is that the current roster, which probably has the better collection of talent, simply hasn’t played well as a team; bonehead baserunning, missing the cutoff man, and general failure to execute good baseball fundamentals have been disastrously commonplace. When the Cubs of 2003 were faced with a chance to put a game away or take charge of a race—like the 5-game Cardinals series in early September or the Pittsburgh series at the end of the year—they seemed to step up, yet the Cubs of 2004 have appeared to fritter away each and every such opportunity. Sure, that they remain in serious contention despite all the injuries certainly indicates their talent level, they’d better shake off the pre-season expectations and start executing at crunch time if they are to get to the postseason.

2004-09-09

Wrong direction, wrong attitude

Hoo boy, Newsweek has three blistering articles about Dubya’s plans, hopes, and strategies

Valid ideas, or just more of that annoying liberal media bias? Hmm…

Swirly light echoes

Saw this picture while reading Hubble image of V838 Monocerotis light echoes

It’s also worth checking out some of the other images of this object to see how it has evolved over the course of many months. Seeing extra-solar-system events evolve so dramatically on such short timescales is a rare treat.

Bad week for fair use and freedom of information

Yeesh, just take a peek…

These blows were slightly softened by reports that Senators McCain and Lieberman introduced a bill that would create a federal civil liberties board with powers (unlike the toothless advisory board created by Dubya). Let’s hope it passes.

Star Wars revisionism: what’s the big deal, people?

With the impending release of the original three Star Wars films on DVD (finally), many have noted that Lucas added several more revisions to those included in the 1997 Special Edition versions. The one getting most press now is the alteration of the final scene in Return of the Jedi to include Hayden Christiansen for better continuity with Episodes I-III. I’ve noticed that parts of geekdom are in an uproar over these changes. Seeing this angst, I have to ask:

What’s the big frickin’ deal here, people?

Okay, you found the Han Solo-Jabba the Hutt scene in A New Hope a bit awkward and cheesy, I’ll give you that. But what astounds me is that nearly all of the commentary seems to be that 1) the changes are bad because these "new" releases aren’t the originals, and/or 2) Lucas has no right to mess with them. The second is really laughable…what, once a creative work is released to the public the author has no right to make revisions? Even if those revisions are mainly to add some touches and continuity that he’d wanted there ever since the beginning? As for the first gripe, well, I can see how someone might want access to the original versions, but many of the arguments seem to assume that the revisions, ipso facto, degraded the films. C’mon, the movies are hardly great works of art, and all of the changes mostly added some extra polish to some places that needed it.

2004-09-08

Partisan sniping doesn’t make us any safer

Since late in the Repbulican National Convention last week, the Kerry and Bush campaigns have been sniping at each other over who can make us safer, including today’s outrageous remarks by Dick Cheney that electing Kerry would put the U.S. at risk of another terror attack. (I’m reminded of a story I read several months back in which someone said that he fully believed that had Gore been president on 9/11, our military would have been non-functional and we would have surrendered to al-Qaeda. Even beyond the offensive implication that only narrow-minded, conservative types have a love of country and willingness to defend it, I can’t fully comprehend the lack of sophistication and intelligence required to believe that one man could single-handedly destroy the United States in a few short weeks or months.) What really galls me about this petty bickering is that both sides are talking past each other instead of picking up the good ideas and synthesizing them into something useful.

I will fully admit that the current Administration has a valid point in that going after al-Qaeda and similar organizations needs to be considered a military-type offensive rather than a law-enforcement exercise. Certainly, people who have decided that some culture or nation-state is so deserving of destruction that innocents must die—whether in iconic office buildings or rural schools—and have taken steps to actively pursue such goals have abdicated the tenets and privileges of civilized society. Given that such people are usually not very inclined to come back to "our" way of thinking, ensuring that they can’t do any more damage is more important than brininging them to justice, especially when one considers the cost-benefit analysis of trying to capture a large number of individuals scattered throughout hovels in various parts of the world.

However, anyone with a clue can see that Kerry’s remarks to the effect of waging a more nuanced "War on Terror" weren’t suggesting that we take a touchy-feely approach to terrorists (even if the campaign didn’t articulate it well for our sound-bite society). No, the sense of sensitivity needs to be applied to our allies so they can help us. Thinkers from Sun Tzu to Machiavelli and others throughout the millenia have been quite explicit in stating that not only is physical strength insufficient to gain or maintain power but also battles are